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Germany · Bundesliga · 17 Oct 2026
1B1. FC Union Berlin
VSNS
BDBorussia Dortmund

1. FC Union Berlin vs Borussia Dortmund prediction & correct score

Poisson fallbackFrozen model version: poisson-1.0

Pre-match analysis · UTC scheduled kick-off

Published 17 Oct 2026, 00:04 UTC · Original forecast retained · Poisson fallback
THE MAIN MODEL SELECTIONOver 2.5 70% estimate

These are uncalibrated model probabilities, not a historical win rate.

Match preview & statistical analysis

1. FC Union Berlin welcome Borussia Dortmund in Bundesliga, with our assessment built around the different scoring patterns at home and away.

1. FC Union Berlin have played 3 home league matches, scoring 5 goals and conceding 6. That is 1.67 scored and 2.00 conceded per home game. Borussia Dortmund have scored 4 and conceded 2 across 2 away league matches.

Across the available competition standings, home sides average 2.36 goals and away sides 1.47. We blend each team’s record with a five-match competition prior to reduce the effect of a small sample. This produces goal-rate estimates of 1.75 for 1. FC Union Berlin and 1.84 for Borussia Dortmund.

The highest-probability exact score in this distribution is 1–1, estimated at 8.9%. The model gives over 2.5 goals a 69.6% estimate and both teams to score 69.5%. These refer to separate markets: a likely winner does not automatically imply a high-scoring game.

The two goal estimates are close. That balance makes the draw and low-margin scorelines relevant to the assessment, even when one side remains the most likely individual winner.

This is an automated statistical preview. The model does not incorporate unverified injury reports, confirmed line-ups, tactical changes or weather. Estimates are uncalibrated and should be considered alongside independent match research. The original forecast is retained when the result is added.

Home and away scoring records

Venue record1. FC Union Berlin · homeBorussia Dortmund · away
Matches played32
Goals scored54
Goals conceded62

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Correct score predictions ↗BTTS predictions ↗Over 2.5 goals ↗Double chance ↗
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Our full methodology ↗
What is a correct score prediction?

It estimates the exact score after normal time, such as 1–0 or 2–1. Our page shows three possible scorelines and their separate model estimates. The top scoreline can still have a relatively low probability.

Are predicted goals the same as a predicted score?

No. Expected goals in this model are numerical goal-rate estimates. The exact-score probabilities are calculated from the full goal distribution rather than rounding those rates.

Are Betsfiled football predictions free?

Yes. Published match previews, market selections and results are free to read. No registration or paid prediction subscription is required.

How are the predictions calculated?

Where enough mapped history exists, a Dixon-Coles model learns separate attack and defence strengths with extra weight on recent matches. Otherwise a clearly labelled Poisson fallback uses current home and away records.

Do predictions guarantee a winning bet?

No. A forecast describes possible outcomes, not certainty. A model probability is not a verified win rate, and losing selections remain visible in the results archive.

When are match predictions updated?

Eligible forecasts are generated before kick-off when enough data is available. The original published selection is retained. Scores are refreshed on a schedule, so this is not a real-time livescore service.

Where do the football statistics come from?

Current fixtures and tables can come from football-data.org, while free API-Football seasons from 2022–2024 can supply model history. Keys remain separate, coverage depends on each account, and Betsfiled generates the model output and commentary.

Which timezone do the fixtures use?

Fixture dates and page filters use UTC for a consistent archive. You can choose local kick-off times using the timezone selector; the selected page date remains labelled in UTC.

Where can I check previous predictions?

The Results page lists the original prediction, final 90-minute score and outcome. Extra time and penalty shootouts are excluded from normal-time market settlement.