betsfiled.THE NUMBERS BEHIND THE GAMETomorrow’s picks ↗
FREE FOOTBALL INTELLIGENCE

Our prediction methodology.

Betsfiled publishes automated statistical estimates using competition standings and venue-specific scoring records. Read how the model works and how results are recorded.

Today’s predictions ↗How our model works →
✓ Free to explore✓ Data-led analysis✓ Public results

1. Keep current and historical data separate

Current fixtures and tables come from the selected provider. With both free keys saved, football-data.org can supply the current season while API-Football contributes completed seasons from 2022–2024. Team names are normalised to provider-neutral identities before historical results are allowed into a model.

2. Fit the Dixon-Coles model

Each usable league model learns separate attacking and defensive strengths, a home advantage and a competition scoring level. Recent matches receive more weight, ridge regularisation reduces unstable extremes, and a fitted rho term corrects the dependence of 0–0, 0–1, 1–0 and 1–1 outcomes.

3. Use an honest fallback

If a current team cannot be mapped or a league lacks at least 120 completed matches, the page is labelled “Poisson fallback”. That model blends current venue records with a five-match competition prior. Both engines produce one normalised score distribution for 1X2, BTTS, totals, double chance and exact scores; neither is presented as a guarantee.

4. Publish before kick-off

Forecasts are published at least 30 minutes before the scheduled kick-off. We save the model version, input records, original selection and publication time. These inputs are not overwritten by later score updates. The stored record is not an independent third-party audit.

5. Record all outcomes

Main selections are settled against the 90-minute score, including stoppage time, and excluding extra time and penalties. Cancelled, abandoned and awarded fixtures are void. Postponed or suspended fixtures remain unresolved until a supported final result arrives. Missing regulation scores remain unsettled for review. Provider score corrections can update settlement; the original forecast stays unchanged.

What the model does not know

It does not account for verified line-ups, player injuries, weather, game-state dependence or tactical changes. Newly promoted sides and limited samples are challenging. The model has no independently validated betting edge. No bookmaker odds, profit or ROI are invented. Any future odds integration must use captured, timestamped bookmaker prices.

Updates and data availability

Fixtures use a scheduled refresh and server-side cache. Kick-off dates are grouped in UTC; local time display is optional. This is not a minute-by-minute livescore service. Data availability depends on provider coverage and account season access. Forecasts are withheld when source records are insufficient.

A LITTLE MORE CLARITY

Good questions.
Clear answers.

Understand the predictions before you explore the picks.

Our full methodology ↗
Are Betsfiled football predictions free?

Yes. Published match previews, market selections and results are free to read. No registration or paid prediction subscription is required.

How are the predictions calculated?

Where enough mapped history exists, a Dixon-Coles model learns separate attack and defence strengths with extra weight on recent matches. Otherwise a clearly labelled Poisson fallback uses current home and away records.

Do predictions guarantee a winning bet?

No. A forecast describes possible outcomes, not certainty. A model probability is not a verified win rate, and losing selections remain visible in the results archive.

When are match predictions updated?

Eligible forecasts are generated before kick-off when enough data is available. The original published selection is retained. Scores are refreshed on a schedule, so this is not a real-time livescore service.

Where do the football statistics come from?

Current fixtures and tables can come from football-data.org, while free API-Football seasons from 2022–2024 can supply model history. Keys remain separate, coverage depends on each account, and Betsfiled generates the model output and commentary.

Which timezone do the fixtures use?

Fixture dates and page filters use UTC for a consistent archive. You can choose local kick-off times using the timezone selector; the selected page date remains labelled in UTC.

Where can I check previous predictions?

The Results page lists the original prediction, final 90-minute score and outcome. Extra time and penalty shootouts are excluded from normal-time market settlement.