THE BETSFILED GUIDE
Correct score predictions: how to read the numbers.
A scoreline can be the most likely result and still be unlikely to happen.
Understand the market
A correct score market concerns the exact score after normal time. If a model gives 1–1 an 11% estimate, it means that score is one possibility among many; it does not mean the model expects an 89% chance of getting the prediction right. Compare several scorelines, the estimated total goals and the team records behind the calculation.
Read the numbers
Goal-rate estimates describe a distribution, not a promised score. Rounding a home rate of 1.6 and an away rate of 0.8 into 2–1 discards useful information. Our score model calculates each score combination and displays the three most likely outcomes.
Put the estimate in context
Small samples, changes in team strength and missing squad information can all affect the estimate. Keep a record of predictions before kickoff and assess outcomes over time. A bookmaker price and a model estimate are different quantities; an apparent difference needs careful validation.
A LITTLE MORE CLARITYGood questions.
Clear answers.
Understand the predictions before you explore the picks.
Our full methodology ↗ Are Betsfiled football predictions free?+
Yes. Published match previews, market selections and results are free to read. No registration or paid prediction subscription is required.
How are the predictions calculated?+
Where enough mapped history exists, a Dixon-Coles model learns separate attack and defence strengths with extra weight on recent matches. Otherwise a clearly labelled Poisson fallback uses current home and away records.
Do predictions guarantee a winning bet?+
No. A forecast describes possible outcomes, not certainty. A model probability is not a verified win rate, and losing selections remain visible in the results archive.
When are match predictions updated?+
Eligible forecasts are generated before kick-off when enough data is available. The original published selection is retained. Scores are refreshed on a schedule, so this is not a real-time livescore service.
Where do the football statistics come from?+
Current fixtures and tables can come from football-data.org, while free API-Football seasons from 2022–2024 can supply model history. Keys remain separate, coverage depends on each account, and Betsfiled generates the model output and commentary.
Which timezone do the fixtures use?+
Fixture dates and page filters use UTC for a consistent archive. You can choose local kick-off times using the timezone selector; the selected page date remains labelled in UTC.
Where can I check previous predictions?+
The Results page lists the original prediction, final 90-minute score and outcome. Extra time and penalty shootouts are excluded from normal-time market settlement.