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Portugal · Primeira Liga · 26 Oct 2026
CCCD Santa Clara
VSScheduled
SBSport Lisboa e Benfica

CD Santa Clara vs Sport Lisboa e Benfica prediction & correct score

Poisson fallbackModel version: poisson-1.0

Pre-match analysis · UTC scheduled kick-off

Published 26 Oct 2026, 00:05 UTC · Original forecast retained · Poisson fallback
THE MAIN MODEL SELECTIONAway win 68% estimate

These are uncalibrated model probabilities, not a historical win rate.

Match preview & statistical analysis

The Primeira Liga meeting between CD Santa Clara and Sport Lisboa e Benfica gives us a chance to compare the hosts’ home record with the visitors’ performances on the road.

CD Santa Clara have played 4 home league matches, scoring 7 goals and conceding 2. That is 1.75 scored and 0.50 conceded per home game. Sport Lisboa e Benfica have scored 15 and conceded 3 across 4 away league matches.

Across the available competition standings, home sides average 0.70 goals and away sides 2.04. We blend each team’s record with a five-match competition prior to reduce the effect of a small sample. This produces goal-rate estimates of 0.70 for CD Santa Clara and 2.05 for Sport Lisboa e Benfica.

The highest-probability exact score in this distribution is 0–2, estimated at 13.4%. The model gives over 2.5 goals a 51.8% estimate and both teams to score 44.5%. These refer to separate markets: a likely winner does not automatically imply a high-scoring game.

Sport Lisboa e Benfica carry the stronger goal estimate despite playing away. Their estimated advantage reflects the venue-specific records, while the home side and draw remain possible outcomes.

This is an automated statistical preview. The model does not incorporate unverified injury reports, confirmed line-ups, tactical changes or weather. Estimates are uncalibrated and should be considered alongside independent match research. The original forecast is retained when the result is added.

Home and away scoring records

Venue recordCD Santa Clara · homeSport Lisboa e Benfica · away
Matches played44
Goals scored715
Goals conceded23

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Correct score predictions ↗BTTS predictions ↗Over 2.5 goals ↗Double chance ↗
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What is a correct score prediction?

It estimates the exact score after normal time, such as 1–0 or 2–1. Our page shows three possible scorelines and their separate model estimates. The top scoreline can still have a relatively low probability.

Are predicted goals the same as a predicted score?

No. Expected goals in this model are numerical goal-rate estimates. The exact-score probabilities are calculated from the full goal distribution rather than rounding those rates.

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How are the predictions calculated?

Where enough mapped history exists, a Dixon-Coles model learns separate attack and defence strengths with extra weight on recent matches. Otherwise a clearly labelled Poisson fallback uses current home and away records.

Do predictions guarantee a winning bet?

No. A forecast describes possible outcomes, not certainty. A model probability is not a verified win rate, and losing selections remain visible in the results archive.

When are match predictions updated?

Eligible forecasts are generated before kick-off when enough data is available, and the original published selection is retained. The separate live panels refresh approximately once per minute and never rewrite the forecast.

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Fixtures, results and live scores for the main leagues come from football-data.org. Average bookmaker odds come from football-data.co.uk. The wider match list and the live tracker come from SportScore, and free API-Football seasons from 2022–2024 can supply model history. Betsfiled generates the model output and commentary.

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The Results page lists the original prediction, final 90-minute score and outcome. Extra time and penalty shootouts are excluded from normal-time market settlement.