THE BETSFILED GUIDE
How to read decimal football odds.
Separate price, probability and a forecast.
Understand the market
Decimal odds show the total return per unit staked on a winning selection. At 2.50, a winning 1-unit stake returns 2.50 units including the original stake. The profit is 1.50 units. A losing stake is lost.
Read the numbers
The simple implied probability is 1 divided by decimal odds: 2.50 corresponds to 40%. Bookmaker prices across every outcome usually include a margin, so their implied probabilities can add up to more than 100%. They are not the same thing as a fair probability distribution.
Put the estimate in context
A model’s estimated probability is produced from assumptions and data. Comparing it with a price can be useful, but an apparent advantage can disappear through model error, stale odds and market rules. Betsfiled only displays bookmaker odds when actual odds have been supplied; a calculated fair price is not presented as an available offer.
A LITTLE MORE CLARITYGood questions.
Clear answers.
Understand the predictions before you explore the picks.
Our full methodology ↗ Are Betsfiled football predictions free?+
Yes. Published match previews, market selections and results are free to read. No registration or paid prediction subscription is required.
How are the predictions calculated?+
Where enough mapped history exists, a Dixon-Coles model learns separate attack and defence strengths with extra weight on recent matches. Otherwise a clearly labelled Poisson fallback uses current home and away records.
Do predictions guarantee a winning bet?+
No. A forecast describes possible outcomes, not certainty. A model probability is not a verified win rate, and losing selections remain visible in the results archive.
When are match predictions updated?+
Eligible forecasts are generated before kick-off when enough data is available. The original published selection is retained. Scores are refreshed on a schedule, so this is not a real-time livescore service.
Where do the football statistics come from?+
Current fixtures and tables can come from football-data.org, while free API-Football seasons from 2022–2024 can supply model history. Keys remain separate, coverage depends on each account, and Betsfiled generates the model output and commentary.
Which timezone do the fixtures use?+
Fixture dates and page filters use UTC for a consistent archive. You can choose local kick-off times using the timezone selector; the selected page date remains labelled in UTC.
Where can I check previous predictions?+
The Results page lists the original prediction, final 90-minute score and outcome. Extra time and penalty shootouts are excluded from normal-time market settlement.